236.420.4090 Email

Optimism #83 - February 24, 2025


Dear clients and friends,

I may be in denial, but turning off the mainstream media coming through the television seems to make me a better, calmer person.

Expecting a blood bath, I looked at my portfolio value this morning with trepidation.  And… it was up.  Not down.  Maybe the sky really isn’t falling?  I wish I knew.

I worry about your money sometimes, and mine.  And then I ask myself what we actually own.  If the expected time horizon to hold the investment is long enough to outlive a market correction, I stop worrying, mostly.

Insiders continue to buy at Cenovus, American Hotel REIT, Canadian Tire, Vermillion Energy, Veren Inc. (formerly Crescent Point Energy), Stantec Engineering, Canadian Net Real Estate Trust. 
Mostly in the energy and real estate areas.  I have missed more than I have listed.  Smart money is not only staying in the market, it’s buying more.

Wonderful articles attached on safe withdrawal rates, making sure your beneficiaries are listed correctly and professional money managers that are bullish on Canada, despite tariffs and other headwinds.

I love quotes from Charlie Munger.  He said, “we have three buckets for investment ideas. Yes, no and too tough to understand.”

And “You can call Bitcoin a store of wealth.  I call it a store of delusion.”

Have a super week.
Derek Moran 


More Articles

2 days ago
Optimism #84 - March 7, 2025
It’s a mess out there, but there was a nice rebound yesterday morning.
Feb 24, 2025
Optimism #83 - February 24, 2025
I may be in denial, but turning off the mainstream media coming through the television seems to make me a better, calmer person.
Feb 3, 2025
Optimism #82 - February 3, 2025
In light of the recent trade war with the US, a quick commentary seems sensible.
Jan 29, 2025
Optimism #81 - January 29, 2025
Portfolios continue to do well. TFSAs and spousal loan payments are largely done and if needed / desired I am here to discuss RRSP contributions over the next six weeks or so.
Dec 30, 2024
Optimism #80 - December 30, 2024
It’s been a terrific year for investing. Next year likely will not be as good. Be patient.
Nov 20, 2024
Optimism #79 - November 20, 2024
Portfolios have performed well and people are generally happy. I am getting a few questions about taking gains off the table...
Sep 19, 2024
Optimism #78 - September 19, 2024
A new record discrepancy for my Fortis gas bill. $63.29 for $7.81 of actual gas. The total is 8.1 times the actual product consumed. What a business. Glad we own it.
Aug 14, 2024
Optimism #77 - August 14, 2024
July is normally boring in investing. Usually, the people with massive influence are at the lake, away from their screens. This year not so.
Jul 16, 2024
Optimism #76 - July 17, 2024
We may be seeing the long-anticipated rotation from growth to value. Canadian value stocks are on a tear over the week.
Jun 25, 2024
Optimism #75 - June 25, 2024
After the coldest June in Kelowna since 1906, summer is finally here.
Jun 6, 2024
Optimism #74 - June 6, 2024
The bad news is my most recent Fortis Gas bill. $159.34 for $24.08 of natural gas. What would I do without dividends?
Apr 18, 2024
Optimism #73 - April 18, 2024
With respect to company insiders, they seem to be buying in the mining and materials sectors at firms such as Chesapeake Gold, Jaguar Mining and selling oil and gas.
Apr 1, 2024
Optimism #72 - April 1, 2024
Very good news. These new Trust rules will not apply for 2023.New – Bare trusts are exempt from trust reporting requirements for 2023 - Canada.ca Portfolios have rebounded significantly from their October lows.
Feb 22, 2024
Optimism #71 - February 22, 2024
I think I have spoken about RRSPs with all of you who need/want it. If not I forgot you. Please book some time with me. The contribution deadline is Feb the 29th.
Jan 4, 2024
Optimism #70 - January 4, 2024
Despite the dark clouds and incessantly negative media, there are always bright happy things taking place. Even after Christmas, I am feeling rich. We received dividends from....
Nov 10, 2023
Optimism #69 - November 10, 2023
Here is one of those terrific articles. I highly recommend it. Lots of wisdom. Thank you Scott Barlow at the Globe and Mail.
Oct 25, 2023
Optimism #68 - October 25, 2023
My wife has me taking vitamins and one of them is biotin. She says it delays hair loss. I’m not so convinced. When I glance quickly at the container, it looks like I’m eating bitcoin. Life is funny. I’m glad we steered clear of that crypto mess.
Aug 21, 2023
Optimism #67 - August 21, 2023
Some of the forest around Kelowna is on fire, but we are okay. Our community is resilient and well organized for such catastrophes.
Aug 15, 2023
Optimism #66 - Supplemental Blurb
We received some brilliant feedback about the annuity question, well worth sharing.
Aug 11, 2023
Optimism #66 - August 11th 2023
I’m bored. Stocks haven’t done much for nearly two years. It’s like waiting for the kettle to boil. Dividends roll in but that’s about it. Bonds are maturing and new interest rates are higher, but we don’t see the higher payments yet as they only pay once or twice a year.
Jul 6, 2023
Optimism #65 - July 6th 2023
Ben Inker of GMO (An exceptional US money manager including Jeremy Grantham) says “ … if I was just going to [invest one way] for the next 100 years – I’d have a quality bias because it’s less risky. And unless the world changes, it’s not going to underperform.”
Jun 20, 2023
Optimism #64 - June 20th 2023
A Director and insider at National Bank recently bought a half million dollars worth of shares this past week. There is only one reason insiders buy.
May 25, 2023
Optimism #63 - May 25, 2023
In spite of what seems like eternal negativity, upon search there are green shoots of positivity. Tough headlines about bank earnings this week, but...
May 1, 2023
Optimism #62 - May 1, 2023
May is here. I see tons of buybacks, dividend increases and insiders buying. There are too many to report.
Mar 24, 2023
Optimism #61 - March 24, 2023
It’s my 24th wedding anniversary and 2 days after my kid’s 21st birthday. Am I really this old? Despite the endless negativity, there are many signs of brightness and a little humour.
Mar 3, 2023
Optimism #60 - March 3, 2023
My lawwwwd what a morning. I spent 1.5 hours on the phone with the BC Government about the Spec Tax Declaration. I had already spent that much time trying to declare online but the software would not accept my input.
Jan 20, 2023
Optimism #59 - January 20, 2023
There’s lots of positive stuff to mention. If you have a spousal loan, interest must be paid before January 30th.
Dec 9, 2022
Optimism #58 - December 9, 2022
It’s been another excellent period for dividend increases. Canadian Western Bank up 3.7%, Royal Bank up 3%, CIBC up 2.4%, TD up 8%, BMO up 3%, National Bank up 5%, Alimentation Couche Tard +27.3%, This is the second increase for most Banks in 2022.
Nov 14, 2022
Optimism #57 - November 14, 2022
Below is a 1-year chart of the Canadian market. We may have seen it bottom on October 13th. The recovery is already +12.5% and apparently this was the best October since 1978. Time will tell but the worst may already be behind us.
Oct 6, 2022
Optimism #56 - October 6, 2022
Fortis increased its dividend on September 29th. 6% as promised a year ago. Emera raised as well from $2.65 to $2.76 per share, an increase of 4.2%. Our portfolio values are down, but the income they generate is up. Let’s keep our eyes on the income. Share prices will recover.
Sep 23, 2022
Optimism #55 -September 23, 2022
It’s a bit like owning a million-dollar home and seeing your neighbor across the street with a similar one, sell for half a million. What do you do except scratch your head? Another neighbor could sell for $400,000. Brace for the irrational. Prices rarely reflect true value.
Aug 30, 2022
Optimism #54 - August 30, 2022
Summer is coming to a close and markets are temporarily dipping.
Aug 19, 2022
Optimism #53 - August 19, 2022
Allen from Alberta was the only person that correctly answered our question in the last edition, that the downturn in 2015/16 was largely due to collapsing energy prices.
Jul 29, 2022
Optimism #52 - July 29, 2022
I am seeing lots of insiders buying, mostly in the energy, mining and REIT sectors. Have a look at this chart.
Jul 14, 2022
Optimism #51 - July 8, 2022
There are many good things to report. Empire (owner of Sobeys and Canada Safeway) raised their dividend 10%. Jim Pattison is buying more shares of Westshore Terminals.
Jun 29, 2022
Optimism #50 - June 29, 2022
There are many positive things happening to mention. I bumped into a friend, Tyler Mordy, one of these early forties, exceptionally bright people who makes asset allocation decisions for Forstrong, a company managing a few billion dollars of other people’s money.
Jun 16, 2022
Optimism #49 - June 16, 2022
The news is ugly, but our dividends roll in. Don’t sell your good quality holdings. If you have cash, buy more, but my limited sense says be patient because it will go down more before going on to new highs.
Jun 10, 2022
Optimism #48 - June 10, 2022
Here is a super article by Tim Cestnick in today’s Globe and Mail about large and emotionally complicated inheritances like cottages. See attached.
Jun 3, 2022
Optimism #47 - June 3, 2022
I am just looking at a situation where a client is trapped in a Manulife Segregated fund for two more years.
May 31, 2022
Optimism #46 - May 31, 2022
In spite of all of the negativity in the news, there is much good happening to mention.
May 16, 2022
Optimism #45 - May 16, 2022
There is a good article this morning’s Globe and Mail about our Canadian banks being undervalued and likely to increase dividends again during this calendar year. See attached.
Apr 27, 2022
Optimism #44 - April 27, 2022
Markets are down a bit in the last few days but it’s rebounding nicely this morning. We have had an exceptional run and it will go on to new highs again soon enough.
Mar 16, 2022
Optimism #43 - March 16, 2022
It’s been a challenging few weeks. I am tempted to grab the generous gains of the past two years and put the money under the mattress for a rainy day.
Mar 4, 2022
Optimism #42 - March 4, 2022
There are many of good things to report amidst the horror of Ukraine and Russia. Our thoughts go out to anyone with friends or family in war-stricken areas.
Feb 22, 2022
Optimism #41 - February 18, 2022
TC Energy raised its dividend this week by 3.4%. We received a pay raise without even working. Tesla’s price has fallen considerably, from about 1230 in early November to 876 as I type. It now trades for 188 years worth of current earnings.
Feb 10, 2022
Optimism #40 - Feb 10, 2022
I continue to see reasons to be happy and optimistic about the future. There were recent dividend increases in these Canadian companies which are always a good sign for investors and for our economy.
Jan 27, 2022
Optimism #39 - January 26, 2022
The rental situation caused all kinds of interesting feedback and more questions.
Jan 20, 2022
Optimism #38 - January 20, 2022
Hopefully the media is correct and this pandemic thing is nearly over. I continue to see many dividend increases and insiders buying shares of their own company shares. Its always a good sign. There are too many to mention this week.
Jan 10, 2022
Optimism #37 - January 7, 2022
Happy New year! As you probably know, we (non US Citizens) are permitted to add $6,000 to your TFSA account for 2022. I am happy to discuss at your request.
Dec 8, 2021
Optimism #36 - December 8, 2021
Happy December. We have much to be grateful for. Each and every one of you will get a pay raise starting in January 2022.