Optimism #61 - March 24, 2023

Portfolios have performed well and people are generally happy. I am getting a few questions about taking gains off the table...

A new record discrepancy for my Fortis gas bill. $63.29 for $7.81 of actual gas. The total is 8.1 times the actual product consumed. What a business. Glad we own it.

July is normally boring in investing. Usually, the people with massive influence are at the lake, away from their screens. This year not so.

We may be seeing the long-anticipated rotation from growth to value. Canadian value stocks are on a tear over the week.

After the coldest June in Kelowna since 1906, summer is finally here.

The bad news is my most recent Fortis Gas bill. $159.34 for $24.08 of natural gas. What would I do without dividends?

With respect to company insiders, they seem to be buying in the mining and materials sectors at firms such as Chesapeake Gold, Jaguar Mining and selling oil and gas.

Very good news. These new Trust rules will not apply for 2023.New – Bare trusts are exempt from trust reporting requirements for 2023 - Canada.ca Portfolios have rebounded significantly from their October lows.

I think I have spoken about RRSPs with all of you who need/want it. If not I forgot you. Please book some time with me. The contribution deadline is Feb the 29th.

Despite the dark clouds and incessantly negative media, there are always bright happy things taking place. Even after Christmas, I am feeling rich. We received dividends from....

Here is one of those terrific articles. I highly recommend it. Lots of wisdom. Thank you Scott Barlow at the Globe and Mail.

My wife has me taking vitamins and one of them is biotin. She says it delays hair loss. I’m not so convinced. When I glance quickly at the container, it looks like I’m eating bitcoin. Life is funny. I’m glad we steered clear of that crypto mess.

Some of the forest around Kelowna is on fire, but we are okay. Our community is resilient and well organized for such catastrophes.

We received some brilliant feedback about the annuity question, well worth sharing.

I’m bored. Stocks haven’t done much for nearly two years. It’s like waiting for the kettle to boil. Dividends roll in but that’s about it. Bonds are maturing and new interest rates are higher, but we don’t see the higher payments yet as they only pay once or twice a year.

Ben Inker of GMO (An exceptional US money manager including Jeremy Grantham) says “ … if I was just going to [invest one way] for the next 100 years – I’d have a quality bias because it’s less risky. And unless the world changes, it’s not going to underperform.”

A Director and insider at National Bank recently bought a half million dollars worth of shares this past week. There is only one reason insiders buy.

In spite of what seems like eternal negativity, upon search there are green shoots of positivity. Tough headlines about bank earnings this week, but...

May is here. I see tons of buybacks, dividend increases and insiders buying. There are too many to report.

It’s my 24th wedding anniversary and 2 days after my kid’s 21st birthday. Am I really this old? Despite the endless negativity, there are many signs of brightness and a little humour.

My lawwwwd what a morning. I spent 1.5 hours on the phone with the BC Government about the Spec Tax Declaration. I had already spent that much time trying to declare online but the software would not accept my input.

There’s lots of positive stuff to mention. If you have a spousal loan, interest must be paid before January 30th.

It’s been another excellent period for dividend increases. Canadian Western Bank up 3.7%, Royal Bank up 3%, CIBC up 2.4%, TD up 8%, BMO up 3%, National Bank up 5%, Alimentation Couche Tard +27.3%, This is the second increase for most Banks in 2022.

Below is a 1-year chart of the Canadian market. We may have seen it bottom on October 13th. The recovery is already +12.5% and apparently this was the best October since 1978. Time will tell but the worst may already be behind us.

Fortis increased its dividend on September 29th. 6% as promised a year ago. Emera raised as well from $2.65 to $2.76 per share, an increase of 4.2%. Our portfolio values are down, but the income they generate is up. Let’s keep our eyes on the income. Share prices will recover.

It’s a bit like owning a million-dollar home and seeing your neighbor across the street with a similar one, sell for half a million. What do you do except scratch your head? Another neighbor could sell for $400,000. Brace for the irrational. Prices rarely reflect true value.

Summer is coming to a close and markets are temporarily dipping.

Allen from Alberta was the only person that correctly answered our question in the last edition, that the downturn in 2015/16 was largely due to collapsing energy prices.

I am seeing lots of insiders buying, mostly in the energy, mining and REIT sectors. Have a look at this chart.

There are many good things to report. Empire (owner of Sobeys and Canada Safeway) raised their dividend 10%. Jim Pattison is buying more shares of Westshore Terminals.

There are many positive things happening to mention. I bumped into a friend, Tyler Mordy, one of these early forties, exceptionally bright people who makes asset allocation decisions for Forstrong, a company managing a few billion dollars of other people’s money.

The news is ugly, but our dividends roll in. Don’t sell your good quality holdings. If you have cash, buy more, but my limited sense says be patient because it will go down more before going on to new highs.

Here is a super article by Tim Cestnick in today’s Globe and Mail about large and emotionally complicated inheritances like cottages. See attached.

I am just looking at a situation where a client is trapped in a Manulife Segregated fund for two more years.

In spite of all of the negativity in the news, there is much good happening to mention.

There is a good article this morning’s Globe and Mail about our Canadian banks being undervalued and likely to increase dividends again during this calendar year. See attached.

Markets are down a bit in the last few days but it’s rebounding nicely this morning. We have had an exceptional run and it will go on to new highs again soon enough.

It’s been a challenging few weeks. I am tempted to grab the generous gains of the past two years and put the money under the mattress for a rainy day.

There are many of good things to report amidst the horror of Ukraine and Russia. Our thoughts go out to anyone with friends or family in war-stricken areas.

TC Energy raised its dividend this week by 3.4%. We received a pay raise without even working. Tesla’s price has fallen considerably, from about 1230 in early November to 876 as I type. It now trades for 188 years worth of current earnings.

I continue to see reasons to be happy and optimistic about the future. There were recent dividend increases in these Canadian companies which are always a good sign for investors and for our economy.

The rental situation caused all kinds of interesting feedback and more questions.

Hopefully the media is correct and this pandemic thing is nearly over. I continue to see many dividend increases and insiders buying shares of their own company shares. Its always a good sign. There are too many to mention this week.

Happy New year! As you probably know, we (non US Citizens) are permitted to add $6,000 to your TFSA account for 2022. I am happy to discuss at your request.

Happy December. We have much to be grateful for. Each and every one of you will get a pay raise starting in January 2022.

This might be the most interesting, or maybe relevant article I have shared.

Quarterly statements are out soon and I am sure you will be pleased. It has been a wonderful 18 month run and company’s prices may have gotten a bit ahead of their earnings, so it’s a good time to be talking with your Portfolio Manager about rebalancing to your target asset mix.

On August 30th, Brian Belski, Chief Economist at BMO has for a second year in a row, hiked his year end 2021 price target for Canada’s stock market.

Here in the Okanagan, it’s starting rain, smoke is clearing and life is getting back to normal. My favourite month, September, is almost here.

I took the wording below from an investment newsletter called The Investment Reporter. The author is referring to dividend paying / growing stocks and says: